While KPMG anticipate job losses will occur as a consequence of the wage subsidy programme ending, we are not expecting to see job figures ‘falling off a cliff’ next month either.
Overall, we believe the unemployment rate will stay around its new level for the next few months as the economy consolidates and handles the transition out of high levels of government support to the business sector.
Today’s Labour Force survey shows that the Australian economy was continuing to recover in September despite the unemployment rate ticking up to 6.9 percent.
While these are a “beautiful set of numbers” we already know this rebound in employment is not likely to last into July because of the re-imposition of lockdown restrictions in Melbourne
The ABS figures show the labour market deteriorated through May, consistent with expectations that the Australian economy was in the midst of a sharp contraction due to the coronavirus shutdown.
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