The latest GDP results shows the national economy screeched to halt in the June quarter of 2020, declining 7 percent from the previous quarter, to be down 0.2 percent year on year.
Among the myriad reasons to hope for a vaccine for COVID-19 is that an ongoing shortfall in skilled immigration will significantly damage Australia’s medium-term economic fortunes.
Dr Brendan Rynne, KPMG Chief Economist, responds to RBA economic forecast Following detailed analysis of the Victoria stage 4 lockdown, KPMG has reviewed its central case scenario for the outlook…
Yesterday’s announcement of a stage 4 lockdown in my home state of Victoria took us yet further into new territory.
The figures may err slightly on the pessimistic side – while everything depends on the health outcomes, the Australian economy does have a natural resilience, which we saw with 330,000 jobs being created between the low of early April and the end of the June quarter.
For years, KPMG has been advocating a rise in the level of Newstart, and the new JobSeeker level is still a healthy rise on that, which is socially and economically justified.
While these are a “beautiful set of numbers” we already know this rebound in employment is not likely to last into July because of the re-imposition of lockdown restrictions in Melbourne
The ABS figures show the labour market deteriorated through May, consistent with expectations that the Australian economy was in the midst of a sharp contraction due to the coronavirus shutdown.
The March figures are better than we had expected, and although for the June quarter we expect an 8 percent fall in GDP – given the wholesale shutdown in the economy – we are more optimistic than some for the overall 2020 forecast.