Dr Brendan Rynne, Chief Economist analysis of ABS October figures

Today’s ABS figures show an official unemployment rate increasing from 4.6 percent to 5.2 percent, over the past month. Our analysis shows that the effective rate is 6.6 percent – once those workers who were still technically employed, but have worked zero hours due to being stood down by their employer have been included.

This is an increase of 0.6 percent since the September figures. Notably the largest gaps between the official and effective unemployment rates are in Victoria and NSW.  We also assess the underemployment rate – where people are unable to work as many hours as they would like – as 9.5 percent.

To some degree, this month’s figures represent a blip – the payroll data released yesterday by the ABS shows this hike in the unemployment rate will be temporary. But how much it falls will relate to how the hidden unemployment is taken up first – people who have been working zero hours or fewer hours than they want.

Read the full analysis.

KPMG Australia Labour Market Capacity Analysis


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