The Australian economy has slowed dramatically during the final quarter of 2018, with GDP growth of only 0.2 percent q/q, and 2.3 percent y/y
Growth expectations for Australia in FY19 and FY20 remain positive, albeit softer than last year.
There are just under 200 days to go until we leave the EU and many are looking at the sky and seeing that the Brexit storm clouds look dark and angry.
Last week’s ABS data showing falling private sector capital expenditure (capex) got a lot of headlines about ‘darkening outlook for the economy’. Was the gloom justified?
The threat of a trade war is still very real. But life goes on, and the global economy is still pushing ahead.
KPMG Economics’ global macroeconomic modelling suggests Australian GDP will be permanently reduced by 0.3 percent in the medium term as a direct consequence of the U.S. tax reforms. This equates to A$5bn and 25,000 jobs lost.
On balance of risks KPMG Economics maintains its forecast of global growth for 2017 with real GDP at 3.0 percent lifting to 3.4 percent in 2018.
Ten years on from the GFC it is instructive to look back at the key signs preceding the crisis and ask, a decade on, whether we are now clear from those problems?
The national accounts from Q1 2017 are largely on track with KPMG’s forecast. We should see growth increase next year with improved economic conditions and reduced uncertainty domestically and internationally.
KPMG Economics’ latest report finds Sydney house prices will experience a greater adjustment than Melbourne in the coming years, although neither market will suffer a collapse in value.