Fog in Channel: The UK economic outlook and Brexit

The March quarterly UK Economic Outlook report looks at the challenges businesses are facing and what they should plan for, including Brexit outcomes and areas of growth.

In this edition, KPMG’s Chief Economist, Yael Selfin covers:

  • The latest forecasts for the UK economy
  • The economic backdrop facing UK businesses
  • Future UK trade markets
  • Outlook for UK retail sales

Our chief economist Brendan Rynne says in reply;

“The report from KPMG UK shows starkly the negative effects of Brexit uncertainty on the UK economy – it has been having a paralysing effect on economic activity and planning. Business investment slumped by 1.4% in the last quarter of 2018 alone.

If a satisfactory Brexit deal is not reached with the EU, the close integration of production processes mean the loss in output to the UK’s economy could be disproportionately large, with companies reorganising their production to bypass the UK entirely. As the UK government – or now Parliament, depending on what happens this week – decides the nature of the future relationship with the EU it must consider the supply chain effect for UK-based businesses and aim to minimise trade frictions between the UK and EU.”

Read the UK Economic Outlook March 2019 report.

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